Snake Draft Plan

QB plan: don't draft your QB before Round 5 unless Allen inexplicably falls. Prioritize RB/WR/TE tiers through Round 4 — with two flex spots, that depth matters more than locking a QB early.

Where this agrees with the board above: Skattebo gets an independent bull case for Rounds 3-4 (19.5 touches, 97 rush yds, and a TD/game from Weeks 2-7 before the ankle injury; Giants added no competition) — a third analyst source now landing on the same read as this plan's overpay target. Watson's WR29 ADP and 2.51 YPRR/96th-percentile route grade match exactly what's already in Section 03. Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, and Quinshon Judkins all get named as Round 3-4 RB values worth targeting alongside or instead of reaching for a 2nd elite RB.

Where it adds something new: Chris Godwin is a clean Round 7 WR autopick — Mike Evans's departure (116 targets, a third of Tampa's red-zone looks) hands him the slot role, and he was on a WR4 pace (16.1 PPG) before a 2024 ankle injury. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jordan Mason, Jonathon Brooks, and Rhamondre Stevenson round out a deep RB2/handcuff pool for Rounds 7-10.

Where it disagrees — worth knowing, not resolving: this source's TE plan leads with Kraft over Bowers/McBride entirely (buying the post-ACL discount rather than chasing the Big Three) — a different, cheaper path to the same goal as Section 06, not a contradiction. More directly conflicting: it names Isaiah Likely (Giants, Round 9-10) as a low-end-TE1 value reuniting with Harbaugh after being blocked by Andrews in Baltimore — the exact opposite read from Section 04's Avoid list, which fades Likely at that same Giants landing spot over Theo Johnson competition and a run-heavy offense projection. Two independent analysts, same player, opposite conclusions — treat it as a coin flip and watch camp reports rather than picking a side here.

Reinforces the Allen fade, sharpens the Lamar read: independent QB-timing research independently calls Allen "a tier of one" — same structural read as Section 02/04. More useful: it flags Lamar Jackson's rushing attempts collapsed from 112+ in every prior season to just 67 last year — if that holds, his Round 4 ADP doesn't hold up. That's a concrete reason to fade him beyond "he's just behind Allen."

Two value QB names to add: Dak Prescott (Round 7) — a favorite Tier 3 value in that research (4,552 yards, 30 TD, Lamb+Pickens at WR), a round earlier than Section 04's Round 5-6 recommendation and arguably a stronger profile. Matthew Stafford (Round 9) — an MVP-caliber season (4,707 yards, 46 TD) with Nacua and Adams at his disposal, going in the same range as replacement-level arms.

One real caution: Patrick Mahomes (Round 8). Coming off an ACL/LCL tear, thin WR room, and the Chiefs may lean more run-heavy after adding Kenneth Walker. Prescott or Stafford in the same range carry less downside.

A new deep dart: Cam Ward (Round 14+). Tennessee hired Brian Daboll — the OC who helped build peak Josh Allen in Buffalo — plus added Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson at WR, and Ward has the 6th-easiest QB schedule in the league.

Bounce-back names worth a second look at their current ADP (treat as upside cases, not certainties): David Montgomery (Texans RB, ~Round 5) — keeps the bulk role over Woody Marks after the trade to Houston. D.J. Moore (Bills WR, ~Round 6) — Buffalo has lacked a true WR1 for years; has history with OC Joe Brady. Mike Evans (49ers WR, ~Round 5) — catching passes from Purdy after McCaffrey, but the soft-tissue injury history is real. Jaylen Waddle (Broncos WR, ~Round 4) — his 2025 dip tracks mostly to Tua's regression; now paired with Nix, which doubles as a reason to like the Nix/Waddle stack if you're buying the Nix value case. Mark Andrews (Ravens TE, ~Round 11) — corroborates Section 07's "last man standing for Lamar's targets" read. Kyler Murray (~Round 11, now on Minnesota) — a fresh-start dart late.

Independently confirms both RB fades from Section 04 — the strongest cross-validation in this plan. Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey come back tied at the same auction-equivalent value here, both notably below Gibbs/Bijan — consistent with a real discount on Taylor specifically, not just tier noise. De'Von Achane also lands below where his talent alone would suggest. Two unrelated models, same fade.

Sharpens the QB-bargain thesis, and reorders it. Drake Maye ranks 62nd overall (Round 5) here, Dak Prescott 83rd (Round 6), Brock Purdy/Matthew Stafford/Jaxson Dart all cluster Round 7, and Bo Nix/Jared Goff both land Round 9 — all meaningfully earlier than a generic "wait on QB" plan would suggest, and matching almost exactly the value names already in Sections 03/08. One real wrinkle: this model has Josh Allen at rank 28 — a Round 2 pick, a full round earlier than every other source in this doc. It's not fading Allen the way the Avoid list and the QB-timing research do; it just likes the cheap QBs even more on top of that.

Reinforces the bounce-back and value-WR names from Section 08: Zay Flowers, Chris Godwin, D.J. Moore, Mike Evans, and Mark Andrews all rank higher here than their ADP tier implies elsewhere in this doc — independent confirmation, not just another writer's opinion.

Don't force zero-RB or hero-RB — take the tier, not the position. With two flex spots, both RB and WR reward depth almost equally through Round 4; ride whichever tier is deepest at your pick rather than committing to a positional script before the draft starts.

Anchor your first two picks in the Round 1–2 tier board above, regardless of position — RB/RB, WR/WR, or RB/WR are all fine as long as both are Tier-1/Tier-2 names, not reaches into Round 3 value.

Bowers/McBride are a Round 3 window, not Round 2 — worth taking there since the gap to Tier 2 is real, but don't reach a round early for them. If you miss both, don't chase Tier 2 (Loveland/Kraft/T. Warren) either — the position falls off a cliff outside the top 2, since a mediocre TE simply doesn't out-produce a viable flex-worthy RB/WR often enough to be worth the pick. Wait for the Fannin/LaPorta/Kittle/Pitts/Kelce range in Rounds 6-8, or punt to the waiver wire entirely.

QB last — Round 5 at the earliest per Section 02, ideally Round 6-8 given the depth at Maye/Burrow/Hurts/Daniels and the Dart/Purdy/Mahomes value tier right behind them.

Lean on Sections 03-05 for your value/fade calls in the moment — they're built to be read live during the draft, round by round, against whatever's actually on the board.

Movers worth knowing about: De'Von Achane's own ADP kept sliding — 4for4's number is now catching up to the fade this plan already had, and the independent model has essentially converged with it (no longer a strong disagreement). James Cook jumped notably in ADP, but the independent model does not confirm the jump — treat it as room-momentum, not a proven read. Jonathon Brooks rose sharply after Chuba Hubbard was shelved with a hamstring injury and Brooks reportedly passed him on the depth chart — real news, reinforcing the RB lottery-ticket case on him from Sections 06/07. Montgomery, Egbuka, and D.J. Moore all continued climbing toward their bounce-back theses from Section 08.

Two more names to fade on fresh injury grounds: Zach Charbonnet (ACL, six-and-a-half months post-op at Week 1) and J.K. Dobbins (Lisfranc surgery on top of a long injury history) both get flagged in the same physical-therapist piece as Pierce. Skip the temptation if either falls to you late.

New value names worth adding: Malik Nabers — priced like Rice/Olave/DeVonta Smith despite a much higher ceiling once fully back from ACL recovery; a clean Round 3 target. Rhamondre Stevenson — the Patriots' own depth chart has him ahead of Henderson, and he was the better fantasy option last year when both were healthy; worth a look a round or two after Section 06's Henderson slot. Michael Wilson — 17.7 PPG over his final 8 games of 2025 (a group that includes Chase, Lamb, Kupp, Nacua, and Jefferson), still going like a late-round afterthought. Chig Okonkwo — free in the final rounds, a legitimate path to low-end TE1 with Terry McLaurin and an aging Stefon Diggs drawing coverage away from him.