14 teams · $200 budget · Half PPR (0.5/rec, 4pt PaTD) · starters QB / WR / WR / RB / RB / TE / FLEX(W-R-T) / K / DEF · 4 bench + 1 IR = 14 roster spots total · keepers at prior salary + $10.
Your draft-vs-value study found three things worth building this plan around: (1) salary tracks consensus at r≈0.93, so paying near sticker for locked-in RB1/WR1s is the low-risk play; (2) paying above consensus only pays off when it's a specific situational read, not a vibe; (3) real bargains cluster at QB. Everything below is organized around those three levers — now reconciled against last year's actual bidding behavior and your real roster shape.
Two corrections applied this pass: (1) the cheat sheet was already pulled under your league's actual Half PPR scoring — confirmed on-page as "Half PPR · 4pt PaTD" both times — so no re-pull was needed there. (2) The auction values below are re-synced to your real roster: QB / WR / WR / RB / RB / TE / FLEX / K / DEF starters, not the flat 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE shape used in the first draft. That flex slot changes every dollar figure below — RB and WR sticker prices both moved, because a RB/WR/TE flex splits value across three positions instead of locking it into WR. Bench is 4 spots + 1 IR, not ~9 — the "endgame pool" section is now sized accordingly.
"Anchor (flex)" means: take the best Tier-1 lock — RB or WR — that the room lets go for the smaller premium on the day. See Section 05 for why this replaced a fixed RB-only commitment.
RB still eats the largest share of budget, and now more so — with a 3-way flex instead of a dedicated 3rd WR, RB sticker prices rose across the board versus the first draft of this plan.
| Player | Market $ | Pay up to | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Anchor RB1sOne real anchor, priced to last year's actual bidding. | |||
| Jahmyr Gibbs | $70 | $88–94 | Last year's #1 RB went for +48% over preseason value. Budget like it. |
| Bijan Robinson | $68 | $86–91 | Same room behavior as Gibbs — a top-3 RB1 draws a real bidding war. |
| Jonathan Taylor | $68 | $58–60 | See Avoid list — Jones's arm and Pierce's health cap the offense's ceiling. |
| Christian McCaffrey | $64 | $68–75 | Discount off the true-anchor price for injury history, but still a fought-over name. |
| Tier 2 — Locks worth a small premium | |||
| Ashton Jeanty | $54 | $56 | Workload alone clears this price. |
| James Cook | $52 | $53 | Jumped to RB6 on ADP momentum — the independent model doesn't confirm this rise, so don't chase it much past sticker. See Section 13. |
| Tier 3 — Realistic RB2 RangeThis is where you land if you're not taking the swing below. | |||
| Saquon Barkley | $45 | $45 | — |
| Chase Brown | $44 | $44 | — |
| Kenneth Walker | $44 | overpay target | See below — worth $12–20 above sticker (up to ~$56–64) if you're taking the swing. |
| De'Von Achane | $44 | $40–42 | See Avoid list — sticker has fallen twice now; the fade is playing out in real time. |
| Derrick Henry | $43 | $44 | New OC's early hints of expanded receiving usage; small premium is fine. |
| Omarion Hampton | $42 | $42 | — |
| Kyren Williams | $41 | $41 | McVay trust is real; fair price for a 300+ opportunity role. |
| Jeremiyah Love | $40 | $40 | — |
| Josh Jacobs | $39 | $32 | O-line collapse (30th in yards before contact) — let it come down. |
| Tier 4 — Value RB3/Flex range | |||
| Cam Skattebo | $39 | overpay target | See below — worth $12–20 above sticker (up to ~$51–59); public, known-to-the-room news now. |
| D'Andre Swift | $34 | $34 | — |
| Travis Etienne | $34 | $37 | Fell hard after the Kamara re-sign; buy the dip if the room hasn't caught up. |
| Breece Hall | $34 | $34 | — |
| Quinshon Judkins | $34 | $34 | — |
| Bucky Irving | $33 | $33 | — |
| David Montgomery | $33 | $35 | Bounce-back riser — see Section 11/13. Keeps the bulk role in Houston over Woody Marks. |
| Jadarian Price | $33 | $33 | — |
| Bhayshul Tuten | $32 | $32 | Ceiling play if Rodriguez/Allen don't cut in. |
| Jonathon Brooks | $26 | $28 | Nearly doubled after Chuba Hubbard's hamstring injury and reports Brooks passed him on the depth chart — real news, not noise. See Section 13. |
| Endgame RB Pool$1–32 — only if you skip the swing above. | |||
| Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rico Dowdle, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kenneth Gainwell, RJ Harvey, Blake Corum, Kyle Monangai, Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco, Alvin Kamara, Tank Bigsby, Keaton Mitchell | $1–32 | $1–3 over sticker max | Handcuff/committee lottery tickets — see the RB draft-timing and handcuff-chart research for the full list. With only 4 bench + 1 IR, you likely have room for 1–2 of these, not several. |
| Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, J.K. Dobbins | $16, $1, $18 | fade | Hubbard is week-to-week with a hamstring; Charbonnet (ACL) and Dobbins (Lisfranc) both carry real reinjury risk per Section 13's injury research. Skip even at the discount. |
With only 2 dedicated WR starters (plus a shared flex), WR sticker prices dropped versus the first draft of this plan — the position is deeper relative to your actual number of WR-eligible roster spots than it looked under the old 3-WR assumption.
| Player | Market $ | Pay up to | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — WR1 AnchorsSame "true lock" premium logic as RB Tier 1. | |||
| Ja'Marr Chase | $52 | $63–67 | Paid +28% over preseason value last year; Burrow health is the only thing capping the premium. |
| Puka Nacua | $51 | $65–68 | Nacua-tier reach paid +35% last year; comparable breakout-WR profiles (JSN) went $25 over sticker. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $49 | $58–63 | Direct historical comp: paid a $25 premium last year on this exact "proven player, expanded role" read. |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $40 | $40 | — |
| Drake London | $36 | $36 | — |
| Tier 2 — Locked-in WR2s, pay retail | |||
| A.J. Brown | $29 | $29 | — |
| Justin Jefferson | $28 | $28 | — |
| CeeDee Lamb | $25 | $25 | — |
| Nico Collins | $23 | $23 | — |
| George Pickens | $23 | $23 | — |
| Malik Nabers | $22 | $24 | Priced like Rice/Olave/DeVonta Smith despite a much higher ceiling once fully past ACL recovery — see Section 13. Worth a small stretch. |
| Rashee Rice | $22 | $22 | — |
| Chris Olave | $22 | $22 | — |
| DeVonta Smith | $22 | $22 | — |
| Tier 3 — Realistic WR2 RangeGiven only 2 WR starters + a shared flex. | |||
| Tee Higgins | $21 | $21 | — |
| Ladd McConkey | $21 | $21 | — |
| Tetairoa McMillan | $21 | $21 | — |
| Garrett Wilson | $21 | $21 | — |
| Jaylen Waddle | $21 | $21 | — |
| Zay Flowers | $20 | overpay target | See below — worth $2–5 above sticker (up to ~$22–25). |
| Emeka Egbuka | $19 | $19 | Sticker nearly doubled ($13→$19) since our last pull — the market caught up on its own. No longer a hidden value, but still a fine WR3. |
| Davante Adams | $18 | $12–14 | See Avoid list — team's own offseason behavior signals they expect the decline. |
| Terry McLaurin | $18 | $18 | — |
| Christian Watson | $18 | overpay target | See below — worth $2–4 above sticker (up to ~$20–22). One analyst has flagged him as overvalued on injury/target-share grounds — see Section 13. |
| Value / flex-filler pool — pay sticker or less | |||
| Luther Burden, Jameson Williams, D.J. Moore, Parker Washington, Rome Odunze, Carnell Tate, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Brian Thomas Jr. | $9–16 | sticker | D.J. Moore and Godwin both keep climbing toward their bounce-back theses — see Section 11/13. Metcalf has an "overvalued" flag from one analyst; treat as a real disagreement, not a reason to avoid outright. |
| Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, KC Concepcion | $1–7 | overpay targets | See below — worth $2–6 above sticker; the deep-value cluster from the round-by-round target research. Jordyn Tyson has been removed from this list — re-injured hamstring, ~2 months out. See Section 13. |
| Player | Market $ | Pay up to | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — The two true difference-makers | |||
| Brock Bowers | $25 | $27 | Now the #1 TE sticker, edging ahead of McBride. Worth stretching for — the position craters after pick 2. |
| Trey McBride | $24 | $26 | Essentially a coin flip with Bowers for TE1. This tier barely moves whether the flex is modeled as splitting toward TE or not — both are valued on raw production gap over replacement, not flex math. |
| Tier 2 — Fine, Not Worth ChasingYour likely TE range given the RB overpay commitment. | |||
| Colston Loveland | $19 | $19 | — |
| Tucker Kraft | $17 | $17 | — |
| Tyler Warren | $17 | $17 | Closed the gap with Kraft ($15→$17) — both are fine values in this range. |
| Harold Fannin | $13 | $13 | — |
| Punt strategy — stream from $1s | |||
| Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, Chig Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, Terrance Ferguson | $1–11 | sticker | Okonkwo is free at the end of the draft with a real path to low-end TE1 with McLaurin/Diggs drawing coverage away — see Section 13. If the RB overpay plan (Section 06) leaves little left, this whole tier is where you punt. |
Dedicated TE draft-timing research backs this up independently of the VOR fix above — its bottom line is nearly word-for-word the same conclusion: "if you're not able to get one of the Big Three, it's often best to just wait out the tight end position." Colston Loveland gets singled out as arguably a third member of the elite tier alongside McBride/Bowers (2.26 YPRR and 11.9 half-PPR PPG from Week 9 on as a rookie) — worth a small bump if he's still in play after the top 2 are gone. Tyler Warren's bull case is specific and current: Michael Pittman is gone, Alec Pierce is hurt, and Warren already led Indy's tight ends with 21 red-zone targets as a rookie — the strongest of the Tier 2 names.
Correction — the flex split was modeled wrong. Earlier drafts of this plan split the single W/R/T flex evenly three ways (RB/WR/TE each +0.33 starters), which pulled required TE starters up to 1.33 and inflated the whole TE table. That's not how flex spots actually get used: past the top 2-3 TEs, the position falls off a cliff, and a flex slot is filled almost entirely by RB3/WR3 value — a TE10 rarely beats a viable bench RB/WR. The standard documented convention for flex-value splitting backs this: the typical flex-split example allocates 100% of a RB/WR flex to those two positions, none to a third position that isn't competitive for the snap. Re-run with RB 2.5 / WR 2.5 / TE 1.0 (flex split only between RB/WR, TE left flat), the numbers above are the result. McBride/Bowers barely moved — they're valued on the raw points gap over replacement, not flex math — but Tier 2 and the punt tier both came down, which is the more honest picture: chase the top 2 or don't chase TE early at all.
QB stays the one position with a repeatable market inefficiency — a single-QB-league discount on talent below the top tier. Josh Allen at $28 is still nearly 1.5x Lamar Jackson, while the QB2–QB6 tier (Maye, Daniels, Hurts, Burrow) sits bunched at $10–12. Don't pay the Allen premium.
| Player | Market $ | Pay up to | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $28 | avoid at sticker | Cap at $20, walk at $24+ — structurally overpriced. See Avoid list. |
| Lamar Jackson | $19 | $16 | Still a two-tier jump ahead of Maye/Daniels for marginal points. |
| Drake Maye | $12 | bargain target $14–16 | Finished QB2 in 2025; upgraded weapons; this is the QB inefficiency in action. |
| Jayden Daniels | $11 | $12 | — |
| Jalen Hurts | $11 | $12 | — |
| Joe Burrow | $10 | $11 | — |
| Dak Prescott | $8 | bargain target $10–12 | Sticker jumped $6→$8 but still a bargain — 4,552 yards, 30 TD last year with Lamb+Pickens. |
| Bo Nix | $4 | bargain target $5–7 | Two top-11 PPG finishes, now with Waddle added — going as QB15. See below. |
QB plan: given the RB commitment below, lean toward the cheap end — Nix or another $4–7 QB — and only stretch to $14–16 for Maye if the position is falling and cash is sitting idle late.
You asked whether these ceilings are aggressive enough. Checked against your table's actual bidding last year, benchmarked to preseason consensus at the time — the first draft wasn't. It priced Tier-1 locks at sticker +$1–3, which isn't how your room bids on names everyone wants.
| Player (2025 draft) | Paid | Preseason value | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | $80 | $54 | +$26 (48%) |
| Justin Jefferson | $73 | $55 | +$18 (33%) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $73 | $57 | +$16 (28%) |
| Bijan Robinson | $72 | $56 | +$16 (29%) |
| Puka Nacua | $69 | $51 | +$18 (35%) |
| CeeDee Lamb | $67 | $53 | +$14 (26%) |
| A.J. Brown | $61 | $42 | +$19 (45%) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $48 | $23 | +$25 (109%) |
Average across last year's top 20 picks: +$14.20, or +38% over preseason sticker. Correction from the first pass of this section: JSN's premium — +109% — is the largest number in this entire table, bigger than Gibbs's +48%. Four of the seven rows above are WRs, and they range from +26% to +109%. The room does not fight harder for RB than WR; it fights hardest for whichever Tier-1 name it wants that day. Singling out RB as "the fight worth having" in the earlier draft of this plan was a stylistic choice this data doesn't actually support — it was picked, not derived.
Revised principle — flexible anchor, not a fixed-position bet: pick one true Tier-1 lock, RB or WR, whichever the room prices at the smaller premium on draft day — don't pre-commit to RB regardless of cost. With Hampton now covering one RB slot as a keeper (Section 09) and the Walker/Skattebo swing dead, there's no reason left to force a second RB premium purchase. Sinking $136–147 into two RB slots (Hampton + a $85–96 anchor) while leaving ~$30 for both WR starters is a real concentration-risk bet — nearly 70% of budget on the position with the highest injury variance in the sport, with no elite receiver to fall back on if it breaks. It's also not what the best-value teams in your own draft history did: the data you've shared shows the two best-value teams last year never bought into the $60–80 tier at any single position — they built value by staying moderate broadly and hitting cheap picks across the roster, the opposite of a single max-size bet. Section 08's ledger reflects the old fixed-RB framing; Section 09's is the current one, now updated to keep the anchor position-flexible.
Paying above consensus should be reserved for a specific, arguable read — not a name you like. Walker and Skattebo are dead per Section 09 (both kept elsewhere) — leave their write-ups below for the read itself, not as live targets. Flowers, Downs, and Etienne are the smaller, "quiet reach" plays that match last year's $1–4 pattern and are still live. Note this section is not your anchor decision — per Section 05, the anchor should be whichever Tier-1 RB (Section 01) or WR (Section 02) prices moderately on the day, not a fixed position.
The read: pre-injury he was averaging 16.3 half-PPR PPG on 18.4 opportunities/game with a 13.8% target share once healthy — a true bell-cow role, not a committee. Camp reports have him fully cleared. This is public, widely-reported news now — the JSN comp from last year's room ($25 premium), not a quiet dice roll. Fills a starting RB slot at swing pricing per Section 05's Option C.
The read: a contested-backfield player who just landed the cleanest workhorse role of his career — no competition for touches, plus a plus-QB (Mahomes returning) raising the offense's floor. A national-news-level opportunity shift; treat it like last year's JSN, not last year's $2 committee dice roll.
The read: already broke out in 2025; new offensive coordinator (Doyle) brings real red-zone-usage upside that wasn't priced under the old scheme. A specific scheme-change bet, not a vibes bet.
The read: Michael Pittman is gone and Alec Pierce is on the mend from offseason surgery — Downs's target competition has been removed, not diminished. A clean opportunity vacuum, and cheap enough to fit the FLEX-range budget. Sticker actually fell to $4 in the latest pull — even more room below the ceiling now.
The read: fell from a top-of-3rd-round ADP to the mid-4th purely because of the Kamara re-signing — a market overcorrection, not a talent or role downgrade. Only relevant if you pass on the Walker/Skattebo swing and need a second RB some other way.
These are priced like locks but carry a specific, identifiable risk the market hasn't fully absorbed yet. Let them go, or take a real discount.
Averaged 27.4 PPG through Week 10, then 12.6 after Daniel Jones's injury tanked the offense. Jones returns from an Achilles tear in his plant foot (limits arm strength/downfield push), and top target Alec Pierce is also recovering from surgery — the exact conditions that caused Taylor's second-half collapse are still in place.
Elite receiving profile, but Miami could be the league's lowest-scoring offense — unproven Malik Willis at QB, and mobile QBs throw to their backs less. Real risk of garbage-time shutdown if the Dolphins are as bad as projected.
Not a talent knock — it's a structural one. Allen goes roughly two full pricing tiers ahead of the next QB in a draft class where QB2–QB6 production is bunched tight. Paying the premium here is a self-inflicted version of the exact inefficiency your own study flagged, and it also directly competes with cash you need for the RB swing.
Good 2025 season, but the Rams' own offseason behavior — pursuing A.J. Brown and this year's rookie WR class — signals the front office doesn't expect the age-33 encore. Bet with the team, not against it.
Three different flavors of the same problem — target competition or health uncertainty that caps the ceiling below the sticker price (Pierce: undisclosed offseason surgery; Odunze: stuck as the offense's 3rd read; Johnston: buried behind McConkey/Harris/Gadsden in a run-first offense).
Both are backups priced like they'll play like starters. Likely's target share has never cleared 14% in three years; Tracy is Skattebo's healthy-scratch-level handcuff being priced as a weekly contributor.
Re-injured the same hamstring last week; the team's own timeline is ~2 months, and re-injury risk research says that stays elevated for 15 weeks after return. He was a deep-value target in this plan through Section 06 — that recommendation is reversed as of this refresh. See Section 13.
Kept for reference only. This version assumed a fixed RB-only anchor + swing, which Section 05 has since walked back, and priced Hampton as a live-auction buy rather than the keeper he now is. Use Section 09's ledger instead.
| Slot | Target range | Planned $ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 (anchor) | Gibbs / Bijan / CMC tier | $85 | Priced to last year's actual bidding, not this year's raw sticker. |
| RB2 (swing) | Kenneth Walker / Cam Skattebo | $52 | Fills the 2nd RB slot at the JSN-comp premium. |
| WR1 | Tier 2/3 WR ($18–25 sticker) | $20 | At or near sticker — no room left to chase Tier 1. |
| WR2 | Tier 3 WR value zone | $14 | — |
| TE | Tier 2 TE, punt if needed | $8 | Miss Tier 1 here without regret — the RB spend was the priority. |
| FLEX | Best remaining WR/RB/TE value | $10 | Includes room for a Downs/Flowers-style overpay if the price lines up. |
| QB | Nix-tier bargain, or Maye if it falls | $8 | — |
| K | Any | $1 | Wait until the end — don't nominate early. |
| DEF | Any | $1 | Same — last year's room paid $1–3 for these. |
| Bench × 4 | Handcuffs / dart throws | $4 | $1 each — RB-timing piece's later-round names first. |
| IR | Any stash | $1 | — |
| Total | $204 | Trim $4 off the anchor or swing on the day depending on how the room actually bids — don't commit to both ceilings at once. | |
Provisional — 6 of 14 keepers submitted as of this draft. Every additional keeper removes both a player and that team's cash from the live auction pool, so re-check this section once all 14 are locked in.
Both of Section 06's overpay swing targets are already gone. Kenneth Walker III is kept by "Seachickens" ($57) and Cam Skattebo is kept by "Heaven on Earth Massage Parlor" ($16) — neither reaches the live auction at any price. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also kept ($58 — SS Minnow Johnson), removing one of the three Tier-1 WR anchor options. Javonte Williams ($14) and Woody Marks ($11) are also off the board. Treat Section 06's Walker/Skattebo writeups as void; Travis Etienne is now the best remaining overpay read at RB.
Your own pick: switch off Tyler Warren ($21, mild overpay at a position you're punting anyway) to Omarion Hampton ($51). Checked against this plan's values, Hampton is the one option priced near fair market ($44–55 range) — and it lands at exactly the position where the room fights hardest, without having to win a bidding war. Chase/Jefferson at $83 both exceed this plan's ceilings for them; Odunze is on the Avoid list already; Croskey-Merritt and Allgeier are marginal-to-bad value.
| Slot (assumes Hampton keeper, flexible anchor) | $ | Source |
|---|---|---|
| RB — Omarion Hampton | $51 | Keeper (recommended pick, replaces the dead Walker/Skattebo swing) |
| Anchor — best Tier-1 lock, RB or WR | $78 | Live auction. Gibbs/Bijan/CMC/Jeanty or Chase/Nacua — take whichever the room lets go for the smaller premium, per Section 05. |
| 2nd starter — whichever position the anchor isn't (RB or WR) | $25 | Live auction. If anchor = WR, this is a Tier-3 RB (Barkley/Henry/Kyren tier). If anchor = RB, this is a Tier-2/3 WR. |
| WR2 (or RB depth, mirrors the row above) | $15 | Live auction |
| TE | $8 | Live auction |
| FLEX | $9 | Live auction |
| QB | $8 | Live auction |
| K | $1 | Live auction |
| DEF | $1 | Live auction |
| Bench × 4 | $4 | Live auction |
| IR | $1 | Live auction |
| Total | $201 | $150 live-auction cash after the $51 keeper, split across one real anchor and everything else at or near sticker — trim $1–3 off the anchor or 2nd-starter row on the day. |
This spends roughly the same total as sinking $85–96 into a second RB, but spreads it across two starting-caliber players at two positions instead of concentrating it in one — directly addressing the concentration-risk point above. It's also a working assumption, not a final plan: 8 more teams still need to submit keepers, and any of them could remove another anchor-tier RB or WR (Gibbs, Bijan, Chase, Nacua, CMC) from the pool. Send the full 14/14 board over before draft day and this section — and the ceilings in Sections 01–04 — should be rerun against the actual reduced pool and reduced total cash in play.
One widely-circulated strategist's plan: build the draft around two fixed "onesie" anchors — Tucker Kraft at TE and one of Christian Watson/Jameson Williams plus Chris Godwin at WR — then let the early rounds sort themselves out as best-player-available at RB/WR. Written for a 12-team half-PPR snake draft with round targets, not auction dollars — translated below to this plan's price tiers as a directional signal, not a literal ceiling.
Corroborates what's already here: Cam Skattebo gets an independent bull case (19.5 touches, 97 rush yds, a TD/game from Weeks 2-7 before the ankle injury; no free-agent or draft competition added) — a third analyst source landing on this plan's exact overpay-target read from Section 06. Christian Watson's WR29 ADP and 2.51 YPRR/96th-percentile route grade match Section 02's overpay-target writeup precisely. Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, and Quinshon Judkins (all $34-41 sticker in Section 01's Tier 3) get named as clean values in that same range.
Adds a name not yet on this sheet: Chris Godwin ($8 sticker, WR Tier "value pool" range). Mike Evans's departure hands him 116 vacated targets and a third of Tampa's red-zone looks; he was on a 16.1 PPG / WR4 pace before a 2024 ankle injury, and per-slot he's averaging a 33% target rate since 2024. At an $8 sticker this reads like a clean, low-cost add — worth grabbing near the end of your WR2/FLEX spend rather than one of the pricier value names already listed.
A genuine expert disagreement, not resolved here: this source names Isaiah Likely (Giants, low-end-TE1 profile reuniting with Harbaugh after being blocked by Andrews in Baltimore) as a value target — the exact opposite of Section 07's Avoid-list read on the same player and landing spot (run-heavy offense, Theo Johnson competition). Two independent analysts, same player, opposite conclusions. At his $1-6 punt-tier price either way, this is a low-stakes coin flip — take a flyer if you want the upside case, skip him if you want the fade, and watch camp reports before committing bench-spot priority.
On TE specifically: this plan leads with Kraft over Bowers/McBride entirely — buying the post-ACL discount rather than chasing the top tier. That's a different, cheaper route to the same goal as Section 03, not a contradiction of it — worth knowing you have both paths available depending on how the room prices McBride/Bowers on the day.
Three more independent pieces of research — dedicated QB draft-timing analysis, a QB breakout-candidates piece, and a bounce-back-players piece — checked against everything above rather than taken as new gospel. Mostly reinforces the existing plan; a few genuinely new names and one real caution worth flagging.
Reinforces the Allen fade and gives Lamar's discount a sharper reason: independent QB-timing research independently calls Allen "a tier of one" — same structural read as Section 04/07. More useful: it flags that Lamar Jackson's rushing attempts collapsed from 112+ in every prior season to just 67 last year — if that holds, his ADP doesn't hold up. That's a concrete reason behind this plan's existing $16 cap on him, not just "two tiers behind Allen."
Two value QB names worth adding to the board: Dak Prescott ($6 sticker) — a favorite Tier 3 value in that research (4,552 yards, 30 TD, 67.3% completion, Lamb+Pickens at WR) — comparable case to Maye/Daniels/Hurts/Burrow at a noticeably lower price. Matthew Stafford ($1 sticker) — an MVP-caliber season (4,707 yards, 46 TD) with Nacua and Adams at his disposal, going for the same $1 as replacement-level arms. Worth being the QB you grab last if you're punting the position entirely.
One real caution: Patrick Mahomes ($4). He's coming off an ACL/LCL tear, has a thin WR room, and the Chiefs may lean more run-heavy after adding Kenneth Walker. Nothing here says avoid him at $4, but don't treat him as a safe QB2 punt target — Prescott or Stafford at the same or lower price carry less downside.
A new deep dart: Cam Ward ($1). Tennessee hired Brian Daboll — the OC who helped build peak Josh Allen in Buffalo — plus added Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson at WR, and Ward has the 6th-easiest QB schedule in the league. Speculative, but costs nothing to find out.
Bounce-back names worth a second look at their current sticker (per dedicated bounce-back research — treat these as upside cases, not certainties): David Montgomery (Texans RB, Tier 3) — traded to Houston, keeps the bulk early-down/goal-line role over Woody Marks. D.J. Moore (Bills WR, value pool) — Buffalo has lacked a true WR1 for years; Moore and OC Joe Brady already have history together. Mike Evans (49ers WR) — now catching passes from Purdy after McCaffrey, but the soft-tissue injury history is real and worth watching, not ignoring. Jaylen Waddle (Broncos WR) — his 2025 dip tracks almost entirely to Tua's regression; now paired with Nix, which doubles as a reason to like the Nix/Waddle correlation if you're already buying the Nix bargain in Section 04. Mark Andrews (Ravens TE, punt tier) — corroborates Section 10's "last man standing for Lamar's targets" read, now with concrete ADP context (TE15). Kyler Murray ($1, now on Minnesota) — a fresh-start dart at the very bottom of the QB pool.
Everything above comes from one primary research source. This section draws on a genuinely separate one: an independent auction-value model built from a wisdom-of-crowd blend across multiple public projection systems plus ADP — no shared methodology with the primary source's valuation engine. Configured to this exact league: 14 teams, $200, Half PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX. Where it agrees with the primary research, that's two independent systems landing on the same read. Where it disagrees, that's worth knowing before you commit to a call at the table.
Rerun Aug 18 — the Achane and Adams "disagreements" have largely closed; don't cite the old numbers anymore. Achane now prices at $41 independently vs. $44 at this plan's sticker (-$3) — both this model and 4for4's own number have converged on the same modest discount; it's no longer the standout cross-validation it was in the first pull. Davante Adams: $21 independently vs. $18 sticker — nearly matched, not the wide gap this section used to claim. Jonathan Taylor remains the real confirmation: $52 independently vs. $68 sticker (-$16), still the strongest cross-validated fade in this plan.
Still sharpens the QB-bargain thesis, updated to today's numbers. The cheap QB names still price higher independently than at sticker, just by smaller margins now that 4for4's own stickers have risen too: Maye ~$17 (vs. $12 sticker), Prescott ~$14 (vs. $8), Stafford ~$8 (vs. $2), Purdy ~$8 (vs. $6), Dart ~$10 (vs. $6), Nix ~$8 (vs. $4). Same read as before, smaller gap — the market's catching up, but the cheap-QB case still holds. Josh Allen still prices roughly in line with or slightly above sticker independently ($29 vs. $28) — this model still isn't fading Allen the way the Avoid list does.
Reinforces the bounce-back and value-WR names from Section 11/13: Chris Godwin (~$11 independent vs. $9 sticker), D.J. Moore (~$17 vs. $14), Malik Nabers (~$25 vs. $22) all still price higher independently — continued confirmation these are underpriced at this plan's number, even after 4for4's own catch-up.
One real disagreement remains: Alec Pierce. He still prices at ~$15 independently despite 4for4's own sticker collapsing to $2 on the fresh injury news (missed all of camp, Colts signing Keenan Allen). That's a real gap — but the independent model almost certainly hasn't ingested today's news yet, so weight the fresher, more specific sources (Section 13) over this one here. Rome Odunze has also mostly converged (~$17 independent vs. $11 sticker, a real but smaller gap than before).
Tempers the two headline overpay targets, same direction as before. Kenneth Walker prices at ~$41 independently vs. $44 sticker, and Cam Skattebo at ~$33 vs. $39 — both still modestly below their own sticker, before this plan's +$12-20 premium on top. The situational read is still real and still yours to make, but lean toward the bottom of the $12-20 range, not the top.
Confirms last round's walk-back on the deep-dart QB. Cam Ward still prices at literally $0 independently — no change. Still skip unless completely free.
Full re-pull of every source above, now that Preseason Week 1 has happened. Sticker prices shifted broadly (all pulled fresh into the tables above), but the real news is below — one existing recommendation gets reversed outright, one gets a fifth independent confirmation, and two more get real pushback worth knowing about.
Reverse the Jordyn Tyson pick from Section 06/11. He re-injured the same hamstring last week and is now expected to miss about two months — a physical-therapist-authored piece flags him as a hard fade, noting hamstring re-injury risk stays elevated for 15 weeks after return. He was a deep-value WR name in this plan; he no longer belongs in it. Cross him off.
Alec Pierce now has five independent sources agreeing, and fresh confirmation today: he's missed the entire training camp program, hasn't returned to team practice, and the Colts just signed veteran Keenan Allen — a real signal they're planning around his absence. This isn't a "maybe" anymore. Treat the Avoid-list discount as a floor, not a target; a $1-2 flyer only if you want the lottery ticket.
Sticker movers worth knowing about (all updated in the tables above): De'Von Achane's own sticker fell further, from $52 to $44 — 4for4's own number is now catching up to the fade this plan already had, and the independent model (rerun the same day) has converged on nearly the same number ($41). James Cook jumped to $52 (RB6, ahead of several better-regarded names) — the independent model prices him meaningfully lower, at $44, so treat the extra $8 as room-momentum, not a fully proven read. Jonathon Brooks nearly doubled, $17→$26, after Chuba Hubbard was shelved with a hamstring injury and Brooks reportedly passed him on the depth chart — this is real news, not noise, and reinforces the RB lottery-ticket case on him from Section 06/10. David Montgomery, Emeka Egbuka, and D.J. Moore all continued climbing toward their bounce-back theses from Section 11.
Two more names to fade on fresh injury grounds: Zach Charbonnet (ACL, six-and-a-half months post-op at Week 1 — real reinjury risk) and J.K. Dobbins (Lisfranc surgery on top of a long injury history) both get flagged in the same physical-therapist piece as Pierce. Neither was a focal point of this plan, but skip the temptation if either falls to you cheap.
Real pushback on three names already in this plan — not resolved, just flagged. One analyst's "overvalued WR" piece specifically targets Christian Watson (this plan's overpay target from Section 02/10), Mike Evans (this plan's bounce-back name from Section 11), and DK Metcalf. The case: Watson has a long injury history (20 of 68 games missed) and has never shown he can win a target share even when healthy — 29 catches on 53 targets in his one full 15-game season. Evans is turning 33, hit a real efficiency cliff in 2025 even before the injury, and faces a crowded 49ers room (Deebo Samuel back, a hot rookie in De'Zhaun Stribling). This doesn't overturn either call by itself — it's one analyst's projection against the room's price and against the other sources already stacked up in this plan — but it's a real disagreement, not a footnote. Watch camp usage reports on both before locking in either price.
New value names worth adding, from a piece written specifically for salary-cap drafts (so its dollar framing translates directly): Malik Nabers ($22 sticker) — priced like Rashee Rice/Olave/DeVonta Smith despite a much higher ceiling once fully back from ACL recovery. Rhamondre Stevenson — the Patriots' own depth chart has him ahead of Henderson, and he was the better fantasy option last year when both were healthy. Michael Wilson ($7 sticker) — 17.7 PPG over his final 8 games of 2025 (a group that includes Chase, Lamb, Kupp, Nacua, and Jefferson), still priced like a $6-8 afterthought. Chig Okonkwo — free at the very end of the draft, a legitimate path to low-end TE1 with Terry McLaurin and an aging Stefon Diggs drawing coverage away from him.